Trust in vaccination is eroding, and attitudes about vaccination have become more polarized. This is an observational study of Twitter analyzing the impact that COVID-19 had on vaccine discourse. We identify the actors, the language they use, how their language changed, and what can explain this change. First, we find that authors cluster into several large, interpretable groups, and that the discourse was greatly affected by American partisan politics. Over the course of our study, both Republicans and Democrats entered the (...) vaccine conversation in large numbers, forming coalitions with Antivaxxers and public health organizations, respectively. After the pandemic was officially declared, the interactions between these groups increased. Second, we show that the moral and non-moral language used by the various communities converged in interesting and informative ways. Finally, vector autoregression analysis indicates that differential responses to public health measures are likely part of what drove this convergence. Taken together, our results suggest that polarization around vaccination discourse in the context of COVID-19 was ultimately driven by a trust-first dynamic of political engagement. (shrink)

Epidemiological models directly shape policy responses to public health crises. We argue that they also play a less obvious but important role in solving certain coordination problems and social dilemmas that arise during pandemics. This role is both ethically and epistemically valuable. However, it also gives rise to an underappreciated dilemma, as the features that make models good at solving coordination problems are often at odds with the features that make for a good scientific model. We examine and develop this (...) dilemma in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggest extensions to other domains. (shrink)

Many philosophers hold that generics (i.e., unquantified generalizations) are pervasive in communication and that when they are about social groups, this may offend and polarize people because generics gloss over variations between individuals. Generics about social groups might be particularly common on Twitter (X). This remains unexplored, however. Using machine learning (ML) techniques, we therefore developed an automatic classifier for social generics, applied it to 1.1 million tweets about people, and analyzed the tweets. While it is often suggested that generics (...) are ubiquitous in everyday communication, we found that most tweets (78%) about people contained no generics. However, tweets with generics received more “likes” and retweets. Furthermore, while recent psychological research may lead to the prediction that tweets with generics about political groups are more common than tweets with generics about ethnic groups, we found the opposite. However, consistent with recent claims that political animosity is less constrained by social norms than animosity against gender and ethnic groups, negative tweets with generics about political groups were significantly more prevalent and retweeted than negative tweets about ethnic groups. Our study provides the first ML-based insights into the use and impact of social generics on Twitter. (shrink)

The social media platform Twitter platform has played a crucial role in the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. The immediate, flexible nature of tweets plays a crucial role both in spreading information about the movement’s aims and in organizing individual protests. Twitter has also played an important role in the right-wing reaction to BLM, providing a means to reframe and recontextualize activists’ claims in a more sinister light. The ability to bring about social change depends on the balance of these (...) two forces, and in particular which side can capture and maintain sustained attention. The present study examines 2 years worth of tweets about BLM (about 118 million in total). Timeseries analysis reveals that activists are better at mobilizing rapid attention, whereas right-wing accounts show a pattern of moderate but more sustained activity driven by reaction to political opponents. Topic modeling reveals differences in how different political groups talk about BLM. Most notably, the murder of George Floyd appears to have solidified a right-wing counter-framing of protests as arising from dangerous “terrorist” actors. The study thus sheds light on the complex network and rhetorical effects that drive the struggle for online attention to the BLM movement. (shrink)

The question of how the probabilistic opinions of different individuals should be aggregated to form a group opinion is controversial. But one assumption seems to be pretty much common ground: for a group of Bayesians, the representation of group opinion should itself be a unique probability distribution, 410–414, [45]; Bordley Management Science, 28, 1137–1148, [5]; Genest et al. The Annals of Statistics, 487–501, [21]; Genest and Zidek Statistical Science, 114–135, [23]; Mongin Journal of Economic Theory, 66, 313–351, [46]; Clemen and (...) Winkler Risk Analysis, 19, 187–203, [7]; Dietrich and List [14]; Herzberg Theory and Decision, 1–19, [28]). We argue that this assumption is not always in order. We show how to extend the canonical mathematical framework for pooling to cover pooling with imprecise probabilities by employing set-valued pooling functions and generalizing common pooling axioms accordingly. As a proof of concept, we then show that one IP construction satisfies a number of central pooling axioms that are not jointly satisfied by any of the standard pooling recipes on pain of triviality. Following Levi, 3–11, [39]), we also argue that IP models admit of a much better philosophical motivation as a model of rational consensus. (shrink)

We explore which types of probabilistic updating commute with convex IP pooling. Positive results are stated for Bayesian conditionalization, imaging, and a certain parameterization of Jeffrey conditioning. This last observation is obtained with the help of a slight generalization of a characterization of externally Bayesian pooling operators due to Wagner :336–345, 2009). These results strengthen the case that pooling should go by imprecise probabilities since no precise pooling method is as versatile.

The purpose of this essay is to study the extent in which the semantics for different logical systems can be represented game theoretically. I will begin by considering different definitions of what it means to gamify a semantics, and show completeness and limitative results. In particular, I will argue that under a proper definition of gamification, all finitely algebraizable logics can be gamified, as well as some infinitely algebraizable ones (like Łukasiewicz) and some non-algebraizable (like intuitionistic and van Fraassen supervaluation (...) logic). (shrink)

This paper focuses on radical pooling, or the question of how to aggregate credences when there is a fundamental disagreement about which is the relevant logical space for inquiry. The solution advanced is based on the notion of consensus as common ground, where agents can find it by suspending judgment on logical possibilities. This is exemplified with cases of scientific revolution. On a formal level, the proposal uses algebraic joins and imprecise probabilities; which is shown to be compatible with the (...) principles of marginalization, rigidity, reverse bayesianism, and minimum divergence commonly endorsed in these contexts. Furthermore, I extend results from previous work by to show that pooling sets of imprecise probabilities can satisfy important pooling axioms. (shrink)

No resulta posible comprender el «sentido» de la historia humana si se prescinde de una «lectura ideológica» de sus procesos, entendiendo por tal la lectura que tematiza, como guía del análisis, la dependencia fundamental de las «formas mentales» respecto de los «intereses de clase» en el contexto de determinadas «relaciones de producción». Para Puente Ojea el estudio del estoicismo y del cristianismo ofrece una interesante oportunidad de verificar las virtualidades de la «lectura ideológica». Al análisis del cristianismo dedicó su (...) anterior libro, Ideología e historia. La formación del cristianismo como fenómeno ideológico (Siglo XXI de España Editores). El presente libro lo dedica al análisis del estoicismo. La madurez de la «sociedad antigua» coincide con el auge de nuevas «aperturas ideológicas», en cuyo discurso intelectual el problema del individuo y su felicidad personal ocupa un lugar preferente. Puede Ojea, utilizando el enfoque metodológico expuesto, analiza aquí las formas de articulación de esas nuevas aperturas ideológicas del pensamiento grecorromano con las estructuras socioeconómicas y la urdimbre política de aquella sociedad, en un intento de contrastar las pretensiones teóricas del materialismo histórico con su capacidad real de explicación histórica. En ese marco, el destino de las doctrinas estoicas y del modo de producción esclavista aparece nítidamente dibujado en su paralelo proceso. (shrink)

Protests and counter-protests seek to draw and direct attention and concern with confronting images and slogans. In recent years, as protests and counter-protests have partially migrated to the digital space, such images and slogans have also gone online. Two main ways in which these images and slogans are translated to the online space is through the use of emoji and hashtags. Despite sustained academic interest in online protests, hashtag activism and the use of emoji across social media platforms, little is (...) known about the specific functional role that emoji and hashtags play in online social movements. In an effort to fill this gap, the current paper studies both hashtags and emoji in the context of the Twitter discourse around the Black Lives Matter movement. (shrink)

This article explores the metaphor of Science as provider of sharp images of our environment, using the epistemological framework of Objective Cognitive Constructivism. These sharp images are conveyed by precise scientific hypotheses that, in turn, are encoded by mathematical equations. Furthermore, this article describes how such knowledge is pro-duced by a cyclic and recursive development, perfection and reinforcement process, leading to the emergence of eigen-solutions characterized by the four essential properties of precision, stability, separability and composability. Finally, this article discusses (...) the role played by ontology and metaphysics in the scientific production process, and in which sense the resulting knowledge can be considered objective. (shrink)

Although logical consistency is desirable in scientific research, standard statistical hypothesis tests are typically logically inconsistent. To address this issue, previous work introduced agnostic hypothesis tests and proved that they can be logically consistent while retaining statistical optimality properties. This article characterizes the credal modalities in agnostic hypothesis tests and uses the hexagon of oppositions to explain the logical relations between these modalities. Geometric solids that are composed of hexagons of oppositions illustrate the conditions for these modalities to be logically (...) consistent. Prisms composed of hexagons of oppositions show how the credal modalities obtained from two agnostic tests vary according to their threshold values. Nested hexagons of oppositions summarize logical relations between the credal modalities in these tests and prove new relations. (shrink)

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la relación entre tiempo y memoria en dos escritos de Aristóteles: en la Física IV y en Acerca de la memoria y de la reminiscencia. En Física IV Aristóteles define el tiempo, en relación con el cambio y movimiento del mundo sublunar, como número del movimiento y del cambio. Por otra parte, en Acerca de la memoria y la reminiscencia realiza un análisis fenomenológico del tiempo que no requiere una concepción numérica, sino un (...) reconocimiento de que lo que se hace presente, como imagen, forma parte de una experiencia pasada, caracterizada por no ser. De esta manera, la interpretación numérica del tiempo es el método de recuperación precisa de la memoria, pero el recuerdo implica una experiencia del tiempo, a partir de la cual se constituye la memoria como negatividad. (shrink)

The full Bayesian signi/cance test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some illustrative applications. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. We discuss some of the theoretical properties of the FBST, and provide an invariant formulation for coordinate transformations, provided a reference density has been established. This evidence is the probability of the highest relative surprise set, “tangential” to the sub-manifold (of the parameter space) that defines the null hypothesis.

In this article, we discuss some issues concerning magical thinking—forms of thought and association mechanisms characteristic of early stages of mental development. We also examine good reasons for having an ambivalent attitude concerning the later permanence in life of these archaic forms of association, and the coexistence of such intuitive but informal thinking with logical and rigorous reasoning. At the one hand, magical thinking seems to serve the creative mind, working as a natural vehicle for new ideas and innovative insights, (...) and giving form to heuristic arguments. At the other hand, it is inherently difficult to control, lacking effective mechanisms needed for rigorous manipulation. Our discussion is illustrated with many examples from the Hebrew Bible, and some final examples from modern science. (shrink)

Ibn al-Bann1321) is the author of one of the four extant of the unfinished zq (fl. Tunis and Marrakesh ca. 1193j accessible for the computation of planetary longitudes. The present paper studies some modifications of the structure of the tables the purpose of which is to make calculations easier. The tables of the planetary and lunar equations of the centre are ' appears as a clever adapter, who displays a clear ingenuity allowing him to introduce formal modifications which give his (...) work an appearance of novelty which does not correspond to reality. (shrink)

Resumen La educación superior se ha constituido en un objeto de creciente interés en la literatura especializada. A pesar de lo anterior, la mayor parte de la investigación disponible se concentra en estudios de corte descriptivo y evaluativo, sin conectar sus desarrollos con las reflexiones de la teoría sociológica. El presente ensayo identifica las principales posibilidades teóricas y epistemológicas de la teoría de sistemas sociales para el análisis de la educación superior, examinando los rendimientos de la noción de diferenciación de (...) planos de formación sistémica (interacción, organización y sociedad) y la idea de diferenciación de sistemas parciales especializados. Abstract Higher education has become an object of growing interest in the specialized literature. Despite this, most of the available research concentrates on descriptive and evaluative studies, without connecting its developments with the reflections of general sociological theory. This essay identifies the main theoretical and epistemological possibilities of social systems theory for the analysis of higher education, examining the uses of the notion of differentiation of systemic formation planes (interaction, organization, and society) and the idea of differentiation of specialized partial systems. (shrink)

The objectives of the present study were to adapt a grief intervention program to family caregivers of patients with dementia, and assess its effectiveness in improving the symptoms of grief and other health-related variables. The intervention was based on Shear and Bloom's grief intervention program, with the necessary adaptations for use in the grieving process for a family member's illness. A total of 52 family caregivers of individuals with dementia participated. They were evaluated using a battery of self-report measures assessing (...) grief, overload, resilience, post-traumatic growth, experiential avoidance, health-related quality of life, and benefits of care. The results suggest that the program is effective in improving grief symptoms, caregiver burden, resilience, post-traumatic growth, and quality of life of family caregivers. It is necessary to create and implement interventions targeting caregivers' feelings and manifestations of ambiguous grief, because there is a lack of programs providing an efficient solution for the mental and physical health of caregivers, and because of the human and socioeconomic cost involved in neglecting this group. (shrink)

In this article, we discuss some issues concerning magical thinking—forms of thought and association mechanisms characteristic of early stages of mental development. We also examine good reasons for having an ambivalent attitude concerning the later permanence in life of these archaic forms of association, and the coexistence of such intuitive but informal thinking with logical and rigorous reasoning. At the one hand, magical thinking seems to serve the creative mind, working as a natural vehicle for new ideas and innovative insights, (...) and giving form to heuristic arguments. At the other hand, it is inherently difficult to control, lacking effective mechanisms needed for rigorous manipulation. Our discussion is illustrated with many examples from the Hebrew Bible, and some final examples from modern science. (shrink)

El objetivo principal del estudio es establecer una nueva estrategia docente en el aprendizaje de las habilidades no técnicas en los estudiantes de medicina mediante la simulación en un entorno real. Para ello, utilizamos un escenario real: la Unidad Médica de Aeroevacuación (UMAER) situada en la Base Aérea de Torrejón (Madrid), donde los estudiantes de medicina de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid realizaron la simulación de aerotransporte de pacientes críticos en un entorno bélico real. Los resultados del presente trabajo muestran (...) la eficacia de la simulación en el aprendizaje de las habilidades no técnicas en los estudiantes de medicina. (shrink)

Sortition, i.e. random appointment for public duty, has been employed by societies throughout the years as a firewall designated to prevent illegitimate interference between parties in a legal case and agents of the legal system. In judicial systems of modern western countries, random procedures are mainly employed to select the jury, the court and/or the judge in charge of judging a legal case. Therefore, these random procedures play an important role in the course of a case, and should comply with (...) some principles, such as transparency and complete auditability. Nevertheless, these principles are neglected by random procedures in some judicial systems, which are performed in secrecy and are not auditable by the involved parties. The assignment of cases in the Brazilian Supreme Court is an example of such a procedure, for it is performed using procedures unknown to the parties involved in the judicial cases. This article presents a review of how sortition has been historically employed by societies and discusses how Mathematical Statistics may be applied to random procedures of the judicial system, as it has been applied for almost a century on clinical trials, for example. A statistical model for assessing randomness in case assignment is proposed and applied to the Brazilian Supreme Court. As final remarks, guidelines for the development of good randomization procedures are outlined. (shrink)

Inauguration speech at chair number 18 of the Brasilian Academy of Philosophy.

I will argue that Roy Cook’s (forthcoming) reformulation of Yablo’s Paradox in the infinitary system D is a genuinely non-circular paradox, but for different reasons than the ones he sustained. In fact, the first part of the job will be to show that his argument regarding the absence of fixed points in the construction is insufficient to prove the noncircularity of it; at much it proves its non-self referentiality. The second is to reconsider the structural collapse approach Cook rejects, and (...) argue that a correct understanding of it leads us to the claim that the infinitary paradox is actually non-circular. En este trabajo argumentaré que la reformulación que Roy Cook (forthcoming) hace de la paradoja de yablo en el sistema infinitario D es una genuina paradoja no circular, pero por motivos distintos a los defendidos por ese autor. La primera parte del trabajo consiste en mostrar que la ausencia de puntos fijos en la construcción es insuficiente para demostrar su no circularidad, a lo sumo prueba su no autorreferencialidad. La segunda parte consiste en volver a considerar el enfoque del colapso estructural que Cook rechaza, y argumentar que una correcta comprensión del mismo revela que la paradoja es genuinamente no circular. (shrink)

Los centros educativos pueden convertirse en entornos positivos implementando programas basados en evidencias. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar el programa “Creciendo Juntos” y analizar su eficacia en la promoción del establecimiento de relaciones positivas en estos. Se contó con una muestra de 990 alumnos (=12.96; 47.5% chicas) que respondieron la Escala sobre la percepción del alumnado acerca de sus relaciones en el centro y su nivel de participación educativa (RMSEA=.049; 90%.043-.055; CFI=.976; TLI =.967 y SRMR=.026). Mientras el grupo (...) de control empeora en sus relaciones y su participación en el centro, el grupo de intervención se mantiene. (shrink)

This study integrates corpus-assisted text analysis with frame semantics to study a social problem. Taking a cognitive-linguistic approach to critical discourse studies, in this article I examine the linguistic construction of minors in a corpus of 489 articles from the Uruguayan newspaper El País in the context of the so-called ‘Criminal Imputability Referendum’. Throughout, I focus on the construal operation of framing and identify a host of discursive patterns via which minors and adolescents are recurrently placed within the semantic frame (...) CRIME, and within this, they profile the frame elements of perpetrators of violent crimes rather than victims. I argue that, in the context of the referendum, these discursive strategies run the risk of facilitating the consolidation of a strong conceptual link whereby youth become readily associated with criminality, and are subservient to the political views of groups supporting a lower cut-off age for criminal responsibility and more stringent punishments. The observations arrived at in this instance set the foundations for a future experimental study testing whether the discursive patterns unearthed here have an effect on how readers conceptualize minors outside the texts. (shrink)

Conceptual congruency effects are biases induced by an irrelevant conceptual dimension of a task (e.g., location in vertical space) on the processing of another, relevant dimension (e.g., judging words’ emotional evaluation). Such effects are a central empirical pillar for recent views about how the mind/brain represents concepts. In the present paper, we show how attentional cueing (both exogenous and endogenous) to each conceptual dimension succeeds in modifying both the manifestation and the symmetry of the effect. The theoretical implications of this (...) finding are discussed. (shrink)